Tensions between North Korea, US to continue through New Year

North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un speaks during the third-day session of the 5th plenary meeting of the 7th Central Committee of Workers' Party of Korea in this photo from the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Tuesday. The KCNA said the meeting would continue. KCNA-Yonhap

By Jung Da-min

The year-end deadline set by North Korea for the resumption of its denuclearization talks with the United States has passed with no surprises.

While North Korean leader Kim Jong-un led a party meeting for four consecutive days ― as of Tuesday ― U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said during an interview with Fox News, Monday (local time), that Washington was closely watching the end-of-year meeting. He said the Trump administration remains hopeful that North Korea will "create a better opportunity for their people by getting rid of their nuclear weapons."

According to the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Kim presented a wide range of party strategies in areas that included the economy, military and diplomacy, as well as stabilizing socialism, during the 5th plenary meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea.

North Korea watchers said Tuesday that a certain level of tension will likely continue in North Korea-U.S. relations throughout 2020, but Pyongyang and Washington will both want to avoid a military clash where there is no gain. The North is seeking to establish a new national strategy focusing more on its economy with the support of military policies. U.S. President Donald Trump, for his part, is running for re-election in 2020.

Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, said it was unlikely that North Korea would see a need to provoke the U.S. by testing strategic weapons such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or nuclear warheads, even though it might have already dropped the issue of denuclearization from negotiations with the U.S.

After talks in Stockholm in October, high-ranking North Korean officials repeatedly said Pyongyang would not continue "unfruitful" talks with the U.S. unless Washington withdrew hostile policies against it, particularly sanctions.

"North Korea is saying it will walk its own way, as the U.S. has turned down the opportunity given by the North with the year-end deadline. If things develop this way, North Korea will not need to conduct military provocations to create a sense of crisis in the denuclearization negotiations," Ko said. "North Korea will not risk military provocations by testing strategic weapons when this could invite U.S. military intervention."

Ko added, however, that North Korea would continue its efforts to get sanctions eased by the U.S.

China and Russia recently submitted a resolution to the United Nations Security Council on easing the sanctions on Pyongyang, but working-level talks brought no results because of the U.S. veto.

"China and Russia are trying to prevent North Korea from leaving their orbit, by submitting such a resolution," Ko said.

Fyodor Tertitskiy, a senior researcher at Kookmin University's Institute of Korean Studies, said the resolution appeared to have been a political gesture initiated by China and later joined by Russia, after North Korean workers working there were forced to return to their country according to UNSC Resolution 2397 that was passed Dec. 22, 2017. No more working visas have been issued for North Koreans since then.

"The message from China and Russia through the resolution toward North Korean workers was that they were forced to leave because of the U.S., not the two countries." Tertitskiy said.

Regarding the party meeting in Pyongyang, Tertitskiy said it could continue through New Year's Day and Kim Jong-un's New Year message may be delivered during it. Tertitskiy also said the tension between Pyongyang and Washington would not be too serious next year, so long as Kim does not stage any overly aggressive actions.

"North Korea could launch missiles, but they would not be ICBMs. If North Korea conducts nuclear or ICBM tests, it would anger China while the North gains nothing," he said.

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